Consumers Like Relevant Advertising, Dislike Data Mining

A study from TNS Global finds most people aren't comfortable with having their online behavior tracked for ad delivery purposes, reports ClickZ.

The research reflected broad awareness among consumers that third parties collect information about their online activities: 71 percent said they knew they were being virtually watched, though only 40 percent were familiar with the term "behavioral targeting."

57 percent were uncomfortable with having their browser cookies analyzed for ad delivery. This held true even if respondents believed their personal information was protected from fraud or other forms of identity abuse.

(For more findings, including tables, from the study, see coverage by MarketingCharts.)

Proponents of behavioral advertising argue that data-mining practices help the consumer, which as a result sees less, and more relevant, advertising in exchange for free content.

Oddly, most consumers surveyed did express a desire for highly targeted, relevant ads; 55 percent said they would be willing to fill out an anonymous survey to get them.

TRUSTe's VP of communications Carolyn Hodge says education on behavioral targeting can help overcome the qualms people have about it. She cited Amazon, which gathers data to share relevant products with users, as one example where behavioral consumer profiles make everyone a winner.

A recent survey by MarketingSherpa found that among marketers, behavioral advertising was among the best ROI deliverers online. To balance practitioner enthusiasm, the FTC released some behavioral ad targeting guidelines late last year.

http://www.marketingvox.com/consumers-like-relevant-advertising-dislike-data-mining-037717/?camp=newsletter&src=mv&type=textlink

Newspaper Online Advertising Spending Jumps 19%, Print Ads Down 9%

Advertising expenditures for newspaper websites in 2007 increased 18.8%, to $3.2 billion - accounting for 7.5% of all newspaper ad spending last year (up from 5.7% in 2006), according to preliminary estimates from the Newspaper Association of America.

Print ad exenditures were down 9.4% in the same period, however, and total (combined print and online) newspaper ad expenditures were down 7.9% for the year.

The following table breaks down online and print newspaper ad expenditures, by quarter, for 2007 and 2006:

In the fourth quarter of 2007, advertising expenditures for newspaper websites increased to $847 million, up 13.6% compared with the same period a year earlier.

That was the thirteenth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth for online newspaper advertising since NAA started reporting online ad spending in 2004.

Advertising expenditures at newspapers and their websites, combined, totaled $12.6 billion for the fourth quarter; spending for print ads in newspapers totaled $11.7 billion.

Those figures are down from the fourth quarter of 2006, when total advertising expenditures were $14 billion, and print ad spend was $13.2 billion.

The following table breaks down newspaper print ad expenditures, by segment and quarter, for 2007 and 2006:

About the data: The NAA website has quarterly and annual ad spending numbers in their entirety.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/print/newspaper-online-advertising-spending-jumps-19-print-ads-down-9-4024/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink

How-To: 9 Basic SEO Tips

Search Engine Optimization (SEO), one component of search engine marketing (SEM), is the process of fortifying a website so it is more likely to appear in a high position when users conduct a search with keywords related to the website's offerings.

Here are a few basic SEO tricks:

1. Find out how well you rank online. You can do this at Alexa.com, which will tell you what position your website holds against all others. The goal will be to make that number lower.

It may be helpful to download the Google Toolbar, which gives you the "PageRank" score for websites. Pages are scored on a scale of 1 to 10. The goal will be to make this number higher on your website.

You can also check the Google PageRank Checker, which provides Google PR, visitor figures and numbers on related links.

2. Submit your site to search engines. Do it personally; avoid "submission services" or software. You only need to do it once. Here is Google's submission page.

3. Place relevant keywords in the title tag so search spiders will know what your page is about. The title tag is the text that appears at the top of the browser when a webpage loads. MarketingVOX's title tag is "MarketingVOX - The voice of online marketing."

Avoid stuffing the title tag with too many keywords, or making it too long. A good rule of thumb: ensure title tag text also appears in the body of the page.

4. Use your archives. When you update your site, link back to relevant stories from the past, using equally relevant anchor text. Don't go overboard; the trick is to give users more information, not overwhelm them with hyperlinks.

Anchor text — the hyperlinked words that point to another page — are a way of telling search engines that page is about those words. The more relevant words point to a page, the more likely that page is to appear in search results when users run a query with those terms.

5. Cultivate relationships with quality websites in your industry. When well-ranked websites link to you (with hopefully relevant anchor text!), this tells spiders your page is important to users seeking information about your area of expertise.

6. Avoid relationships with link farms, people who offer to pay for links to their websites, or other sites that you don't want associated with your own. Google conducts occasional sweeps and penalizes destinations of ill repute by tanking their ranking.

7. Use alt tags on images to "tell" search engine spiders what the images are. This will help them index your pictures and better serve readers with text-only web browsers.

8. Got a big site? Build a site map. A site map can help spiders crawl pages more quickly. The fewer clicks necessary to get to a page on your website, the better. Small site? Use a nav bar.

9. Occasionally embolden useful terms on a page. Once or twice is fine; too much bold can irritate readers. Worse still, it might look to Google like keyword abuse.

10. Focus on the customer. The best sites for users, and consequently for search engines, are full of oft-updated, useful information about a given service, product, topic or discipline. Avoid cutting corners or exploring "black-hat" SEO options, which could result in lower rankings over time or even a site ban from search engines.

Updating often, making content readable and easy to find, and developing productive online relationships are enough to improve destination relevance significantly over time.

http://www.marketingvox.com/how-to-9-basic-seo-tips-037438/?camp=newsletter&src=mv&type=textlink

The Six Cs of Permission Email Marketing

by Karen Talavera

Published on February 19, 2008

Permission Marketing. Beyond buzz word, it's clearly the status quo for email and has long been debated as the future state of direct mail, too. Already legally mandated by data laws in other countries, opt-in marketing may evolve into the preferred model within the US as well.

With marketing channels of choice proliferating and messaging devices diversifying, it's not hard to imagine an opt-in vs. opt-out future where permissions are granted not only by marketing channel (email, postal mail, phone, RSS), but also by content, device, time, and place.

All the more reason to genuinely understand permission, which in the world of email marketing alone appears relegated to subjective definitions. We'll help set the record straight by exploring the first two of six dimensions of permission in this three-part series, "The Six Cs of Permission Email Marketing."

They may seem obvious, and they may sound simplistic, but you might be surprised how often the fundamentals are dismissed.

 

1. Conscious Consent

There are numerous ways individuals end up on email lists, and many of those ways are unknown even to them.

Terms like "affirmative consent," "passive consent," and "third-party consent" abound. But when it comes to genuine 100% permission marketing, the only consent that matters is conscious consent.

Are your join and subscribe invitations structured in such a way that list members must voluntarily take action to receive your messages, and do they realize the action they are taking will result in email from your company, partners, or affiliates? If you can't answer "yes" to these questions, your methods are not garnering conscious consent.

Sure, people are bombarded with messages and advertising impressions from a growing array of channels; and, yes, they forget what they've signed-up for. However, conscious consent ensures that an opt-in process is clear and non-deceitful.

Without a self-initiated action on the part of your list members, it is virtually impossible for them to join. Requiring such self-initiated, voluntary measures requires conscious action on the part of your recipients and increases the likelihood that they remember having taken such action.

On the other hand, unconscious or passive consent assumes rather than requests permission. It takes true voluntary choice out of the equation by pre-checking boxes, using data gathered from publicly available sources, or gathering information via some other opt-out collection model.

While those methods are certainly not illegal and are often justifiable, they don't constitute conscious consent. If 100% permission marketing is what you aim for, nothing less than voluntary consent will do.

2. Choice

Choice and conscious consent go hand in hand, since conscious consent assumes individual choice. Yet beyond the choice to join/subscribe in the first place, you should make available options that offer control (one of our upcoming C's).

Which options will you—can you—offer in a permission marketing environment? These are just a few:

• Communication type (news, promotional, legal, transactional)
• Content type (product information, reminders, sales offers)
• Preferred communication channel (email, postal mail, phone, fax)
• Frequency preferences
• Device-specific message formatting (mobile vs. desktop)
• Temporary suspension of messages
• Unsubscribe

For an expert example of how it's done, see United Airlines customer preferences at www.united.com. If you're a United Mileage Plus program member, just log-in and select "My Profile." You'll be able to edit email preferences, flight notification preferences, and other options. Another excellent example can be found at Hallmark. Create an account there if you don't already have one to see what we mean.

When offering permission and communications choices, you offer preferences; so, present only the options that you can successfully fulfill. And don't forget to note when certain types of content or communication are available only through a particular channel and not others.

It's fine to restrict choices solely to what you can realistically manage; aim your sights on under-promising and over-delivering—and your customers will reward your efforts.

Next: The next two Cs of Permission Email: Clarity and Confidence.

http://www.marketingprofs.com/8/six-cs-permission-email-marketing-part-1-talavera.asp?sp=1

New Study Shows that Heavy Clickers Distort Reality of Display Advertising Click-Through Metrics

New Study Shows that Heavy Clickers Distort Reality of Display Advertising Click-Through Metrics

CHICAGO – Media agency Starcom USA, behavioral targeting network Tacoda, and digital consumer insight company comScore collaborated on a research study whose results call into question click-through rates as a primary source of accountability for Internet display advertising aimed at brand-building. Called “Natural Born Clickers,” the study reveals that a very small group of consumers who are not representative of the total U.S. online population is accountable for the vast majority of display ad click-through behavior.
Full findings of the study, its methodology and results are being presented this afternoon at the iMedia Brand Summit in Coconut Point, Florida.
The study illustrates that heavy clickers represent just 6% of the online population yet account for 50% of all display ad clicks. While many online media companies use click-through rate as an ad negotiation currency, the study shows that heavy clickers are not representative of the general public. In fact, heavy clickers skew towards Internet users between the ages of 25-44 and households with an income under $40,000. Heavy clickers behave very differently online than the typical Internet user, and while they spend four times more time online than non-clickers, their spending does not proportionately reflect this very heavy Internet usage. Heavy clickers are also relatively more likely to visit auctions, gambling, and career services sites – a markedly different surfing pattern than non-clickers.
Further preliminary Starcom data suggests no correlation between display ad clicks and brand metrics, and show no connection between measured attitude towards a brand and the number of times an ad for that brand was clicked. The research presentation suggests that when digital campaigns have a branding objective, optimizing for high click rates does not necessarily improve campaign performance.
“There is more and more emphasis by advertisers for greater return-on-objectives in campaigns, particularly in the digital space where the accountability data is so readily available,“ says Starcom USA Director of Connections Research and Analytics Grant Prentice. “Natural Born Clickers shows us that we can’t count on click-through rate as our primary success metric for display ads; Starcom is more reliant on shifts in brand attitude metrics and analytics tying on-line exposure to sales as the true measures of online advertising efficacy.”
“While the click can continue to be a relevant metric for direct response advertising campaigns, this study demonstrates that click performance is the wrong measure for the effectiveness of brand-building campaigns,” said Erin Hunter, executive vice president at comScore. “For many campaigns, the branding effect of the ads is what’s really important and generating clicks is more of an ancillary benefit. Ultimately, judging a campaign’s effectiveness by clicks can be detrimental because it overlooks the importance of branding while simultaneously drawing conclusions from a sub-set of people who may not be representative of the target audience.”
“One of the underlying values of looking at people and not just pages in our business is that we are able to help uncover behavior that is counterintuitive to what much of the media world assumes about online audiences,” says Daniel Jaye, CEO of TACODA.

http://www.smvgroup.com/news_popup_flash.asp?pr=1643

Interactive Marketers Unsure of Tracking Capabilities

According to the new Sapient annual Interactive Marketing Survey more than half the marketing senior level respondents felt only ‘somewhat confident' or ‘not confident at all' in their organization's abilities to track campaigns across multiple channels in real-time, with only 19 percent reporting the ability to make campaign changes in less than 24 hours.

Confidence Level To Track Campaigns Across Multiple Digital Channels in Real Tiime

Confidence Level

% of Respondents

Highly confident

16%

Confident

33

Somewhat confident

39

Not confident at all

12

Source: Sapient, January 2008

While social networking was cited the least "trackable" digital channel, according to the survey, it was the channel with the largest anticipated increase in marketing analytics spend for 2008. Only 12 percent of respondents tracked social networking campaign performance in 2007; in 2008, 42 percent anticipate using analytics to track this increasingly important channel.

Performance Least Confident in Tracking

Digital Channel Performance

% of Respondents

Search

11%

Email

12

Mobile

16

Digital advertising

11

Social networking

25

None

6

Don't know/na

9

Source: Sapient, January 2008

Nearly half the respondents said they do not believe campaign data provided to them evenly measures and compares performance across all digital channels, but ifficulty in comparing metrics across channels is the most common hurdle to accuracy in this area, cited by 28 percent of respondents

Biggest Hurdle for Organization to Measure and Compare

Hurdle

% of Respondents

Don't have capabilities to interpret

15%

Difficult to compare metrics

28

Difficult to work with IT to implement

8

No technology in place

18

Bias toward previously effective channels

20

Don't know/na

11

Source: Sapient, January 2008

Email and search were cited as the two channels that marketers were most confident in their ability to track, and 38% of marketers said search resulted in the highest ROI to their organizations. 28% of marketers plan to increase search spending in 2008.

Area of Digital Marketing Budget Expected to Increase Most in 6-12 Months

Digital Channel Performance

% of Respondents

Search

28%

Email

14

Mobile

14

Digital advertising

19

Social networking

16

None

2

Don't know/na

7

Source: Sapient, January 2008

Sapient Chief Creative Officer, Gaston Legorburu, concludes "In 2008, marketers will seek the ability to seamlessly incorporate social networking with their other channels, including search and email, and the capability to monitor and measure performance to ensure they are achieving optimum results."

For graphic charts and additional information, please visit Marketing Charts here.

More information on the report and Sapient may be found here.

Online Newspaper Viewership Reached Record High in ‘07

Average monthly unique audience figures for newspaper websites grew by more than 3.6 million in 2007, a record year for the industry and an increase of more than 6% over 2006 numbers, according to the Newspaper Association of America (NAA).

Monthly unique visitors to newspaper websites averaged 62.8 million in last year’s fourth quarter, a record number in itself and the largest in any quarter since NAA began tracking online usage in January 2004.

According to the data, which is part of a new report by Nielsen Online for NAA that takes into account home and work internet usage, unique visitors in the fourth quarter represented a 9% increase over the same period a year ago (57.6 million).

Among the findings of the report:

• Heading into the holiday season, newspaper websites experienced a record in October 2007. More than 63.2 million people visited newspaper websites that month, more than any month on record - and an 8% increase from the same period a year ago.
• For the year’s fourth quarter, 39% of all active Web users visited newspaper websites, with visits averaging 44 minutes a month.
• In the fourth quarter, users generated more than three billion page impressions on average, a 7.3% increase over the same period a year ago.

See below for chart of similar data, by month, for all of 2007; data for previous periods is available from NAA’s website.

“Newspapers continue to successfully transform themselves into multimedia companies, offering unparalleled content that reaches an audience growing in both size and sophistication,” said NAA President and CEO John F. Sturm.

“Newspapers’ expanding print and digital portfolio offers value to advertisers by providing a targeted, comprehensive menu of choices for today’s discriminating consumer. As our industry’s transition accelerates, it is clear consumers recognize newspapers as their trusted source of information in an increasingly digital environment.”

About the data: The Nielsen Online newspaper total represents a de-duplicated visitor total taken from its combined home and work panel of internet users (e.g., an individual who might read a national newspaper plus a local newspaper online is counted only once). The target sample (2 years or older) has access from a non-shared PC at work and/or access from home. The Nielsen Online monthly newspaper total represents the de-duplicated reach of a custom list of hundreds of sites collectively.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/online-newspaper-viewership-reaches-record-high-in-07-3190/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink

Datran Survey Puts E-mail ROI in Question

Conventional wisdom, not to mention common sense, has it that e-mail delivers an astronomically high return on investment compared to other channels.

However, this is apparently news to a significant percentage of marketers.

Just 55.3% of executives recently surveyed by pay-for-performance marketing firm Datran Media said e-mail’s ROI is higher than that of other channels.

Also, 25.9% said e-mail’s ROI is roughly equal to that of other channels. And a still significant 18.8% said e-mail’s ROI is <ital>lower<ital> than that of other channels.

These are fairly stunning numbers given e-mail’s low transmission costs. They also fly in the face of Direct Marketing Association calculations that e-mail delivered $48.56 in sales for every dollar spent in 2007, and would deliver $45.65 for every dollar spent in 2008.

For comparison, the DMA said non-e-mail Internet marketing returned $20.67 in sales for every dollar spent in 2007. The trade group said catalogs delivered $7.22 in sales for every dollar spent in 2007.

Datran didn’t ask respondents to elaborate on the ROI question so it’s impossible to say definitively what the reasons for the findings are.

“I can only speculate here, but my guess is marketers might cite search as the strongest ROI channel since the measurement/metrics are so easy and familiar – even if this perception does not match results,” wrote Lana McGilvray, vice president of marketing for Datran, in an e-mail exchange with this newsletter.

“Also, based on direct feedback from our clients (not related to this survey), while e-mail is most often the top performer, we also hear great feedback of the results of direct TV, search and display. The strongest multi-channel mix for each company varies and it takes more than a single channel to realize maximum success,” she continued.

Meanwhile, in another eyebrow-raising statistic, just 36.5% of those surveyed by Datran said they test how their creative appears across various inbox types.

Internet service providers have been increasingly blocking graphics by default for quite some time now. Moreover, a message’s appearance can change fairly dramatically from inbox to inbox. So apparently, the vast majority of marketers are conducting e-mail campaigns with no idea how their messages look to most of their recipients.

Still, a respectable 74.1% of those surveyed said they conduct A/B/C content or creative testing.

Less surprising findings included that 82.4% of those surveyed said they would increase their use of e-mail marketing in 2008, while 15.3% said their use of the channel would stay the same and 2.4% said it would decrease.

Also, 71.8% of respondents said search compliments e-mail, compared to 51.8% who said display advertising compliments the channel, 24.7% said mobile compliments e-mail, 41.2% said direct marketing—presumably mail—compliments it.

Sending newsletters was the most popular use for e-mail among marketers by a slight margin, with 80% saying they planned the activity. However, selling was a close second with 78.8% choosing that option.

Interestingly, 64.7% said they plan to use e-mail to increase brand awareness.

Also, while much of the talk in the industry is about behaviorally targeted advertising, demographic and geographic targeting are still king. While 56.5% of respondents said they send e-mails targeted based on recipients behavior, 63.5% said they target based on demographics and geography. Meanwhile, a not insignificant 20% said they don’t send targeted campaigns.

A healthy 67.1% said they believe e-mail boosts sales in other channels.

Moreover, marketers’ interest in exploiting the opportunities in transactional e-mails remains high as 63.5% said they plan to advertise in their transactional messages.

Jan 22, 2008 1:34 PM , By Ken Magill

http://directmag.com/disciplines/email/datran_survey_email_question_0122/

Analysts Predict Recession, Gloomy Year for Media

Wall Street is nervous about the media sector, with analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Sanford Bernstein issuing negative reports on the sector today.

Anthony Noto of Goldman Sachs reduced estimates across communications, media and entertainment sectors, saying they are all economically sensitive that will be dragged down by the recession that GS is predicting, writes CNBC.

Noto is particularly concerned about radio broadcasting and newspapers.

The recession will be a mild one by historical standards, lasting only two or three quarters this year and easing in 2009, Noto believes. He says the internet and video game businesses are among the few attractive areas of the industry, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Sanford Bernstein’s Michael Nathanson believes media stocks will take it on the chin, with CBS Corp. being hit the hardest. The worst case scenario could see the firm revising earnings estimates down by 20 percent for CBS, and down by 12 percent for Disney.

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/2008/01/10/analysts-predict-recession-gloomy-year-for-media/

2007 Holiday E-commerce Postmortem

Some $29.2 billion was spent online during the 2007 holiday season, a 19% gain versus the same period last year, according to comScore’s final update of e-commerce spending during the holiday season (Nov. 1 - Dec. 31).

Monday, Dec. 10, was the heaviest online spending day of the season with $881 million spent, and the week ended Dec. 16 was heaviest spending week, with $4.7 billion, comScore said.

“This year’s online holiday shopping season has concluded with a record $29 billion in spending, a 19% gain versus year ago,” said comScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni. “Ultimately, the softness in the growth of online retail sales during the first 10 days of November proved difficult to overcome and prevented the season’s growth rate from reaching our forecast of 20%.”

However, a healthier 21% growth rate was recorded during the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, he said. Below, the holiday-season spending info issued by comScore.
Top 10 Online Spending Days

“Green Monday” (Monday, Dec. 10) was the heaviest individual spending day of the season with $881 million in sales, followed by Tuesday, Dec. 11 ($819 million), and Thursday, Dec. 6 ($803 million).

“Cyber Monday” (Nov. 26), the first major spike in online spending activity during the season, ranked as the 9th-heaviest day with $733 million.
Fastest-Growing Product Categories

Videogames, consoles & accessories was the fastest-growing online retail category, jumping 129% versus the 2006 holiday season, with popular consoles like Nintendo Wii and Sony PlayStation and games like Halo 3 driving strong sales in the category.

Furniture, appliances & equipment (up 67%), event tickets (up 24%) and consumer electronics (up 23%) also experienced above-average growth.

After substantial softness early in the season, online apparel sales picked up considerably in the latter part of the season, finishing up 18%.

Meanwhile, sales of jewelry & watches declined marginally versus year ago; rising costs in precious metals like gold and platinum may have dampened consumer demand.
Weekly Online Holiday Retail Sales

The heaviest spending week during the 2007 holiday season was the week ended Dec. 16, with $4.7 billion in online sales, edging out the week ended Dec. 9’s $4.6 billion.

The week ended Nov. 18 showed the strongest growth rate (26%) versus the corresponding week in 2006, while the week ended Nov. 4 showed the softest growth (4%).

TV Watchers More Engaged If Viewing Online, Engagement = Ad Receptivity

Consumers who watch TV online are more engaged than those who watch programs on TV sets, according to a cross-media study by Simmons, part of Experian Research Services, reports MediaPost. Moreover, there’s a high correlation between media engagement and ad receptivity.

Viewers are 47% more engaged in ads shown during TV programs shown online than those shown on programs watched on a TV set, the “Multi-Media Engagement” study found. They are also 25% more engaged in the content of shows watched online than on a set.

Simmons views “engagement” as having six “dimensions” that respondents identify with media they consume: “inspirational,” “trustworthy,” “life-enhancing,” “social interaction,” “personal time-out” and “ad attention/receptivity.”

Among other findings:

• People are 18% more engaged with ads in online versions of magazines compared with print versions; they are also 15% more engaged in magazine articles online than in print magazines.
• In general, however, print enjoys higher levels of engagement than TV or the internet (despite, or perhaps because of, its shrinking [therefore more hard-core] audience).

• Women and younger consumers have slightly higher levels of engagement online than average.
• Those age 35-54 rated the internet as almost as trustworthy an information source as did 18-34-year-olds.
• Those who visit a site 2-6 times per week tend to be more responsive to ads than those who visit less frequently.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/tv-watchers-more-engaged-if-viewing-online-engagement-ad-receptivity-2931/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink

Ten Key Online Predictions for 2008

eMarketer has issued predictions for 2008 in key online areas, including those related advertising, videos, social networks, e-commerce and entertainment, saying online advertising will ride out potential economic storms in the US - and YouTube will decide political elections.

The 10 predictions for 2008 according to eMarketer:

1. Online ads remain resilient.
2. Video surge slows.
3. Social-network advertising hits $1.6 billion.
4. Networking goes beyond MySpace and Facebook.
5. YouTube decides the election.
6. Beijing Olympics pumps up ad spending.
7. Buy online, pick up in-store becomes expected feature.
8. Movie downloading hits the mainstream.
9. Music marketers roll out new business models.
10. Dynamic ads heighten gaming revenue potential.

Online Ad Spending

Overall US online ad spending will be surprisingly resilient, even if the economy slides into a recession. With money tight, marketing executives will continue to gravitate toward the internet, looking for more measurable ad formats to buttress their positions.

Video Ad Spending

The surge in online video growth is expected to slow in 2008 with a 74% growth (down from 89% in 2007) and a spending increase of $1.35 billion.

In 2008, the array of video available online will jump dramatically, both from professional content producers - such as TV networks - and from of amateurs churning out user-generated content.

Online video players such as Google, Microsoft and the TV networks will fortify their video offerings by buying small, ad-related companies.

However, ad dollars on video will remain small relative to the total US online ad spending.

Social-Network Advertising

US ad spending on social networks will climb to $1.6 billion in 2008, from $920 million in 2007 - a 70% growth rate.

Although targeted advertising is getting the lion’s share of attention and will continue to be hot in 2008, other forms of social-network marketing, such as search advertising, widgets and e-commerce, will draw marketer interest.

In addition, self-serve advertising systems will create a new market for local and small businesses to promote themselves via social networks.

Social Network Usage

Social networking will remain a key online activity, with 44% of US consumers using social networking at least once a month in 2008. While MySpace and Facebook will continue to dominate the market, changes are taking place that will extend social networking activities beyond a single destination site.

Profiles will eventually become portable, meaning consumers need only create one and be able to use it in many places on the web. Widgets that today work with only one social-network site will be designed on an open platform, extending their reach.

Activities such as online shopping, searching and even sending email will be enhanced with social-networking features.

YouTube and Politics

YouTube attracts the most online traffic and is consistently rated the favorite social media site by US Internet users.

YouTube will play a decisive role in the 2008 US presidential election by either airing a user-submitted clip that embarrasses a leading candidate or setting the tone of the campaign through its series of sponsored debates.

Beijing Olympics

Events of 2008 - the Beijing Olympics, along with the US election - will spike advertising spending in all channels but will give a particular boost to the online sector.

As the internet market matures, the growth rate of online ad spending will taper off, dipping to under 30% in 2007 for the first time since 2004. But in 2008, growth will surge upwards to 29%, before declining to 18% the next year.

The Olympics will also mark the “coming out” party for China and become an important milestone for the country’s economic and political development.

The competition will be fierce on and off the sporting field as multinational organizations try to tap into China’s growing middle class.

E-Commerce

Multichannel retailers will begin rolling out more “buy online, pick up in-store” services, joining big-name retailers such as Circuit City, JC Penney and Sears. Consumers like the service because it allows them to avoid shipping fees.

A Forrester Research survey found that 79% of multichannel retailers ensure consistent pricing across their channels.

An Internet Retailer study found that three-quarters of retailers link their e-commerce systems to their fulfillment and order management system.

Movie Downloads

US consumer spending on movie downloads will more than double from 2007 to 2008, from $114 million to $245 million.

The result is that digital services, such as iTunes, Netflix, Amazon Unbox, Movielink/Blockbuster, Vongo and others will become more popular with the mainstream.

Music Marketing

Music labels and marketers will step up their experimentation with new and emerging business models as the CD continues to fade away. Worldwide recorded music spending has declined year after year - from $32 billion in 2006 to $28 billion in 2008, hitting a low of $26 billion in 2011.

Expect to see more ad-supported sites, monthly subscription services, full-track mobile download offerings and use of social networks as music discovery and sales tools.

Gaming

Old videogames will have new life breathed into them by companies such as Double Fusion, which serves ads in real time.

Advertisers will purchase advertising that is served on free casual games that consumers download.

The same concept will apply to console games distributed online for Xbox and Wii, with firms such as Microsoft’s Massive providing the technology.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/ten-key-online-predictions-for-2008-2924/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink

Impact of DVR on TV Commercials

Despite the hubbub about DVR use, there’s hope for advertisers and time-sensitive ads, because viewers aren’t delaying the viewing of recorded programs, according to (pdf) a recent analysis of Nielsen data by Palisades MediaGroup.

On average, more than half of all DVR primetime program playback is done within the same day of recording - and by the end of the following day DVR owners complete approximately three-quarters of all program playback, Palisades said:

While DVR penetration appears to be growing at a rapid pace, its usage isn’t making a significant impact on ratings: “At least not yet,” said Susie Thomas, SVP, director of research and insights at Palisades MediaGroup. “Nielsen estimates DVR penetration to be at 20%, up from 12% in January of this year. While this is a good-sized increase, the impact on viewership remains minor.”

According to the study, ratings increase just over 15% due to DVR playback from live to live-plus-seven. The average rating against adults aged 18-49 was 2.5 for live viewing and 2.9 for live-plus-seven viewing; an increase of only 16.7%.

While fast-forwarding through the ads is still an issue, not all people who use a DVR fast-forward: The data show that less than half of people who watch a recorded program fast-forward through the ads during playback.

“Of course there are fluctuations when looking at the data program by program,” noted Thomas, “but overall DVR usage is not dramatically cutting into live viewing.”

Equally significant, the top 10 most-DVR’d primetime shows among adults 18-49 are played back as much as 58% on the same day (CBS’s Survivor: China) and as little as 27% (CW’s Reaper):

The bottom line, according to Palisades: Advertisers with time-sensitive messages such as opening-weekend movie releases or special holiday sales offers need not fret over the DVR movement just yet; viewers are watching recorded programs shortly after they’ve been recorded - thus maintaining the timeliness of the advertising message.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/dvr-use-not-having-huge-impact-on-ratings-2897/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink

Millennials Like Traditional - Not Just New - Media

Millennials (those now age 18-24) have an affinity for traditional media, such as print publications and television - and almost 6 in 10 (58%) say they use magazines to find out about what’s cool and hip, such as clothes, cars and music, according to a study released earlier this year.

Moreover, almost three-quarters (71%) of Millennials say they enjoy reading print magazines even though they know they could find most of the same information online.

Deloitte’s “2007 State of the Media Democracy” survey, conducted by Harrison Group, also found that when Millennials find something they like, they broadcast it, and do so effectively:

• The Millennials surveyed maintain large IM and texting lists that average 37 people, compared with the average of 17 for all those surveyed.
• And when they find a particular television show or website that they enjoy, they tell an average of 18 people, compared with only 10 people for all age groups.

According to the survey, word of mouth is the most common reason for Millennials to visit a website, followed by an ad on TV; almost half (48%) visit TV websites in a typical week.

The survey confirmed the growing popularity of user-generated content; Millennials in the survey spend about equal amounts of time consuming user-generated content and commercially produced content online:

• A large proportion of Millennials (58%) create personal content in a typical week, and an even greater proportion (71%) regularly consume it.
• But user-generated content is not just for kids - there is a “trickle up” effect, and the older generations are creating and consuming personal content as well: over a third of Matures (current age 61-75) - 36% - report that they regularly consume user-generated content.

Among the highlights of the survey’s findings:

User-Generated Content

• 40% of all survey respondents are making their own entertainment (editing movies, music and photos):
  • 25% of Matures
  • 56% of all Millennials
• More than one in 10 Millennials are actively uploading their own videos on the Internet.
• 51% of all survey respondents are watching/reading content created by others.
• 71% of Millennials, 56% of Xers; Boomers/Mature participation is less, but noteworthy.
• 53% of Millennials would download more videos if connection speeds were faster.
• One-third of online content viewing is done on user-generated sites: Almost ¼ for Matures, ½ for Millennials.

Traditional Media

• Favorite and promising new television shows beat the web as the most frequent media conversation topics for all generations: 52% of Xers are visiting television show Internet sites
• Printed magazines are an integral part of every generation’s life:
  • 72% enjoy reading magazines over finding the same information online
  • 58% of Millennials agree magazines help them learn about what’s “in.”

Advertising Insights

• 64% tend to pay greater attention to print ads in magazines or newspapers than advertising on the Internet.
• More than one-in-four would pay for online content vs. being exposed to ads.
• Search engines and word of mouth are the most effective means for driving Web site traffic - 85% of Xers are influenced by someone’s recommendation.
• 87% of respondents continually visit the same websites.
• Generation Xers are a little more responsive than others to advertising

Future Products

• 64% want to easily connect their television to the Internet for viewing videos and downloading content to their television.
• 60% want the ability to move their content to any device they own without any problems.
• 57% want an entertainment and communication device that lets them do everything.
• 49% want a computer or similar device that will be the center of their household media experience.

About the Survey: The online survey was commissioned by Deloitte & Touche USA LLP and conducted by Harrison Group, an independent research company, between February 23 and March 6, 2007. The survey polled 2,211 online consumers between the ages of 13 and 75.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/millennials-like-traditional-not-just-new-media-1117/

Americans More Connected and Quite Ad-Tolerant

Within the span of eight months, the use of online and mobile devices for entertainment has rocketed among online US consumers, according to the second edition of the “State of Media Democracy” new-media survey from Deloitte & Touche, reports Reuters.

About 38% of consumers are now watching TV shows online, compared with 23% eight months ago, according to the study.

And some 54% said they use social-networking sites, chat rooms or message board; in addition, 45% said they have a profile on a social-networking site.

The report of the online survey of 2,081 US consumers, conducted Oct. 25-31, is slated for release in Jan. 2008. Deloitte apparently provided the findings early to The Hollywood Reporter, which reported some results today:

Among the study’s findings related to advertising…

• 85% cited TV advertising as among the types having the most impact on purchase behavior; 65% cited online ads; and 63% pointed to magazine ads.
• However, 59% said they pay greater attention to magazine ads - and 55% cited newspaper ads - than any type of internet advertising.
• Online, search ads were cited as the most effective (78%), followed by interactive ads (62%), banner ads (60%), pre-rolls (31%) and post-rolls (19%).
• 67% said they would be willing to be exposed to more online ads in return for free content that’s valuable.
• However, 37% said they would rather pay for online content than be exposed to advertisements.
• 65% said they consider any type of internet ad more intrusive than newspaper and magazine ads.

Among the findings related to cell phones…

• Some 36% now use their mobile phones as entertainment devices, compared with 24% eight months ago (study conducted Feb. 23 to March 6)  - an increase of 50%.
• Among millenials (consumers 13-24-years-old), the proportion is 62%, up from 46% in the previous study.
• Among Gen Xers (25-41-year-olds), the proportion increased to 47% from 29%.
• About 20% of US consumers said they view video content on cell phones daily or almost daily.

Among the findings related to user-generated content…

• 45% of US consumers said they are creating online content (websites, music, videos and blogs) for others.
• Some 54% said they are making their own entertainment content through editing photos, videos or music.
• 69% said they are watching or listening to consumer-generated content.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/americans-more-connected-and-quite-ad-tolerant-2887/?camp=newsletter&src=mc&type=textlink